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新常态下的新布局(图)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月23日 00:45:19
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(中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(特)(邀)(成)(员)(沈)(建)(光)(  12月)(9日)(至)(11日)(,中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(在)(北)(京)(召)(开)(。从)(会)(后)(新)(闻)(稿)(来)(看)(,本)(次)(经)(济)(会)(议)(全)(面)(分)(析)(了)(2015年)(进)(入)(新)(常)(态)(下)(的)(中)(国)(经)(济)(可)(能)(会)(呈)(现)(的)(基)(本)(特)(征)(,机)(遇)(与)(挑)(战)(,并)(为)(2015年)(经)(济)(工)(作)(布)(置)(了)(五)(点)(任)(务)(,确)(立)(了)(财)(政)(发)(力)(、货)(币)(松)(紧)(适)(度)(的)(政)(策)(基)(调)(。  与)(往)(年)(中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(的)(新)(闻)(稿)(相)(比)(,此)(次)(“狠)(抓)(改)(革)(攻)(坚)(”、“全)(面)(刺)(激)(政)(策)(的)(边)(际)(效)(果)(明)(显)(递)(减)(”、“改)(革)(既)(要)(有)(年)(度)(特)(点)(、又)(有)(利)(于)(长)(远)(制)(度)(安)(排)(”、“城)(镇)(化)(要)(有)(历)(史)(耐)(心)(、不)(要)(急)(于)(求)(成)(”等)(一)(系)(列)(表)(述)(让)(人)(耳)(目)(一)(新)(,也)(更)(加)(务)(实)(。  中)(国)(经)(济)(前)(景)(乐)(观)(  结)(合)(此)(次)(会)(议)(与)(当)(前)(经)(济)(形)(势)(来)(看)(,笔)(者)(对)(明)(年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(整)(体)(上)(持)(有)(乐)(观)(态)(度)(。  首)(先)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(在)(全)(球)(仍)(处)(于)(有)(利)(地)(位)(。正)(如)(习)(总)(书)(记)(所)(言)(,当)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(正)(处)(于)(新)(常)(态)(阶)(段)(,主)(要)(具)(有)(以)(下)(三)(个)(主)(要)(特)(征)(:一)(是)(从)(高)(速)(增)(长)(转)(为)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(;二)(是)(经)(济)(结)(构)(不)(断)(优)(化)(升)(级)(;三)(是)(从)(要)(素)(驱)(动)(、投)(资)(驱)(动)(转)(向)(创)(新)(驱)(动)(。当)(然)(,尽)(管)(新)(常)(态)(下)(中)(国)(经)(济)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(,但)(如)(果)(将)(中)(国)(经)(济)(新)(常)(态)(特)(征)(放)(到)(更)(广)(泛)(的)(视)(野)(分)(析)(,不)(难)(发)(现)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(增)(长)(也)(整)(体)(低)(于)(危)(机)(之)(前)(,同)(样)(具)(有)(新)(常)(态)(特)(征)(,而)(中)(国)(表)(现)(仍)(然)(最)(好)(,不)(仅)(是)(世)(界)(增)(长)(的)(龙)(头)(,而)(且)(结)(构)(改)(革)(进)(展)(迅)(速)(。  从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(而)(言)(,对)(待)(近)(两)(年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(下)(调)(不)(宜)(过)(度)(悲)(观)(。全)(球)(经)(济)(的)(回)(暖)(,油)(价)(下)(跌)(,中)(国)(改)(革)(红)(利)(的)(继)(续)(释)(放)(,以)(及)(流)(动)(性)(放)(松)(和)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(复)(苏)(,预)(计)(明)(年)(增)(长)(可)(能)(可)(以)(超)(过)(7%,因)(此)(,对)(于)(新)(常)(态)(不)(妨)(抱)(以)(新)(的)(心)(态)(,2015年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(可)(能)(超)(预)(期)(。  其)(次)(,中)(国)(出)(口)(竞)(争)(力)(仍)(然)(较)(强)(。从)(此)(次)(中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(的)(表)(态)(来)(看)(,三)(驾)(马)(车)(中)(,明)(年)(消)(费)(是)(基)(础)(、投)(资)(是)(关)(键)(,而)(出)(口)(则)(是)(支)(撑)(作)(用)(。结)(合)(笔)(者)(近)(期)(海)(外)(路)(演)(的)(经)(历)(,笔)(者)(发)(现)(,当)(前)(美)(国)(企)(稳)(态)(势)(明)(显)(,欧)(央)(行)(抗)(危)(机)(举)(措)(力)(度)(较)(大)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(在)(明)(年)(有)(望)(进)(一)(步)(向)(好)(,这)(为)(中)(国)(出)(口)(创)(造)(了)(良)(好)(的)(外)(在)(环)(境)(。  同)(时)(,尽)(管)(汇)(改)(以)(来)(,人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(了)(30%以)(上)(,且)(近)(几)(年)(中)(国)(劳)(动)(力)(工)(资)(成)(本)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,但)(从)(国)(际)(份)(额)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(出)(口)(份)(额)(仍)(然)(保)(持)(第)(一)(位)(置)(,且)(对)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(家)(的)(份)(额)(进)(一)(步)(上)(升)(,体)(现)(了)(中)(国)(出)(口)(在)(全)(球)(的)(竞)(争)(力)(仍)(然)(较)(强)(,为)(支)(持)(中)(国)(经)(济)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(打)(下)(基)(础)(。  其)(三)(,中)(国)(抵)(御)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(的)(能)(力)(仍)(然)(较)(强)(。明)(年)(是)(“十)(二)(五)(”的)(收)(官)(之)(年)(,诸)(多)(金)(融)(改)(革)(,如)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(、汇)(率)(市)(场)(化)(、资)(本)(项)(目)(开)(放)(等)(按)(照)(既)(定)(目)(标)(在)(明)(年)(会)(大)(力)(推)(进)(,而)(这)(将)(对)(2016人)(民)(币)(完)(成)(基)(本)(可)(兑)(换)(,并)(促)(进)(2020年)(人)(民)(币)(早)(日)(成)(为)(国)(际)(储)(备)(货)(币)(打)(下)(良)(好)(基)(础)(。  当)(然)(,有)(担)(忧)(认)(为)(,资)(本)(项)(目)(开)(放)(会)(对)(国)(内)(金)(融)(稳)(定)(造)(成)(影)(响)(,但)(在)(笔)(者)(看)(来)(,与)(曾)(经)(遭)(遇)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(东)(南)(亚)(国)(家)(不)(同)(,当)(前)(中)(国)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(已)(高)(达)(4万)(亿)(美)(元)(,中)(国)(债)(务)(风)(险)(可)(控)(,加)(之)(对)(短)(期)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(监)(控)(,中)(国)(抵)(御)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(的)(能)(力)(仍)(然)(较)(强)(。  其)(四)(,明)(年)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(不)(大)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(空)(间)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(。今)(年)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(其)(实)(已)(经)(呈)(现)(出)(通)(胀)(不)(足)(为)(虑)(的)(情)(况)(,相)(反)(生)(产)(领)(域)(的)(通)(缩)(是)(值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(。造)(成)(PPI长)(达)(33个)(月)(持)(续)(通)(缩)(的)(原)(因)(有)(几)(点)(:一)(是)(国)(内)(需)(求)(的)(放)(缓)(,这)(直)(接)(体)(现)(在)(生)(产)(企)(业)(实)(际)(利)(率)(的)(提)(高)(,因)(此)(早)(前)(降)(息)(以)(支)(持)(实)(体)(经)(济)(融)(资)(是)(有)(必)(要)(的)(。二)(是)(全)(球)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(下)(降)(,特)(别)(是)(能)(源)(结)(构)(调)(整)(后)(,油)(价)(下)(降)(的)(因)(素)(。而)(对)(待)(油)(价)(下)(降)(,笔)(者)(认)(为)(,整)(体)(上)(对)(于)(中)(国)(企)(业)(与)(居)(民)(而)(言)(都)(是)(有)(利)(的)(。总)(之)(,明)(年)(通)(胀)(仍)(然)(不)(是)(主)(要)(矛)(盾)(,为)(货)(币)(政)(策)(提)(供)(了)(更)(加)(充)(分)(的)(空)(间)(。  其)(五)(,中)(国)(整)(体)(债)(务)(风)(险)(仍)(然)(可)(控)(。相)(比)(于)(去)(年)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(的)(六)(大)(任)(务)(之)(一)(着)(力)(防)(控)(债)(务)(风)(险)(,今)(年)(对)(债)(务)(问)(题)(的)(提)(法)(有)(所)(淡)(化)(。这)(并)(非)(说)(明)(债)(务)(问)(题)(不)(足)(以)(引)(起)(警)(示)(,而)(是)(化)(解)(高)(杠)(杆)(和)(泡)(沫)(化)(为)(主)(要)(特)(征)(的)(风)(险)(需)(要)(“标)(本)(兼)(治)(,对)(症)(下)(药)(,简)(历)(健)(全)(化)(解)(风)(险)(的)(体)(制)(机)(制)(”,思)(路)(有)(所)(变)(化)(。  在)(笔)(者)(看)(来)(,当)(前)(中)(国)(四)(大)(部)(门)(负)(债)(中)(,最)(令)(人)(担)(忧)(的)(是)(非)(金)(融)(企)(业)(负)(债)(,但)(化)(解)(这)(一)(问)(题)(,化)(解)(杠)(杆)(率)(问)(题)(也)(应)(提)(倡)(应)(疏)(非)(堵)(。比)(如)(最)(近)(资)(本)(市)(场)(向)(好)(,有)(助)(于)(资)(金)(流)(向)(上)(市)(企)(业)(,补)(充)(企)(业)(资)(本)(金)(,自)(然)(降)(低)(杠)(杆)(率)(。同)(时)(,也)(应)(看)(到)(,当)(前)(中)(国)(政)(府)(方)(面)(,以)(及)(居)(民)(方)(面)(的)(债)(务)(率)(仍)(然)(很)(低)(。未)(来)(发)(挥)(政)(府)(支)(出)(,以)(及)(加)(大)(居)(民)(杠)(杆)(率)(以)(鼓)(励)(消)(费)(都)(有)(不)(少)(空)(间)(。  最)(后)(,狠)(抓)(改)(革)(将)(是)(最)(大)(的)(红)(利)(。三)(中)(全)(会)(以)(来)(,改)(革)(推)(进)(的)(速)(度)(是)(超)(出)(预)(期)(的)(,金)(融)(改)(革)(、户)(籍)(改)(革)(、城)(镇)(化)(改)(革)(等)(都)(在)(持)(续)(推)(进)(,而)(作)(为)(改)(革)(深)(水)(区)(的)(财)(税)(改)(革)(与)(国)(企)(改)(革)(也)(有)(望)(在)(明)(年)(破)(冰)(。其)(中)(,财)(税)(改)(革)(方)(面)(,顶)(层)(设)(计)(已)(经)(完)(成)(,一)(旦)(明)(年)(能)(够)(取)(得)(实)(质)(进)(展)(,困)(扰)(中)(国)(多)(年)(的)(企)(业)(与)(地)(方)(政)(府)(投)(资)(随)(意)(性)(强)(、透)(明)(度)(低)(且)(存)(在)(软)(约)(束)(的)(问)(题)(有)(望)(得)(到)(初)(步)(解)(决)(。而)(国)(企)(改)(革)(方)(面)(,明)(年)(国)(企)(改)(革)(加)(快)(推)(进)(或)(有)(可)(期)(,如)(果)(国)(企)(改)(革)(可)(以)(深)(入)(下)(去)(,市)(场)(的)(力)(量)(必)(将)(推)(动)(微)(观)(主)(体)(效)(率)(提)(升)(,并)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(找)(到)(新)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(点)(。  三)(大)(风)(险)(仍)(需)(警)(惕)(  结)(合)(全)(球)(经)(济)(的)(视)(角)(来)(看)(,笔)(者)(对)(于)(明)(年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(整)(体)(上)(抱)(有)(信)(心)(。但)(是)(,这)(并)(非)(意)(味)(着)(应)(该)(忽)(视)(风)(险)(,实)(际)(上)(,以)(下)(几)(点)(风)(险)(仍)(然)(需)(要)(引)(起)(重)(视)(。  当)(前)(工)(业)(产)(品)(高)(库)(存)(的)(现)(实)(,意)(味)(着)(化)(解)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(仍)(然)(任)(重)(道)(远)(,需)(要)(坚)(持)(市)(场)(化)(的)(思)(路)(,加)(快)(国)(企)(改)(革)(,切)(实)(做)(到)(“关)(停)(并)(转)(”以)(走)(出)(这)(一)(困)(局)(。  改)(革)(推)(进)(的)(步)(骤)(与)(搭)(配)(,毕)(竟)(短)(期)(内)(部)(分)(改)(革)(的)(推)(进)(会)(对)(经)(济)(造)(成)(负)(面)(冲)(击)(,如)(财)(税)(改)(革)(的)(推)(进)(可)(能)(会)(影)(响)(明)(年)(投)(资)(的)(增)(速)(,对)(此)(要)(提)(前)(考)(虑)(,并)(做)(好)(相)(应)(的)(风)(险)(对)(冲)(。  改)(革)(步)(骤)(之)(间)(的)(协)(调)(问)(题)(,正)(如)(笔)(者)(早)(前)(一)(直)(所)(言)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(只)(能)(为)(防)(止)(经)(济)(短)(期)(风)(险)(赢)(得)(时)(间)(,真)(正)(的)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(才)(是)(赢)(得)(增)(长)(的)(不)(二)(法)(门)(。  因)(此)(,坚)(持)(宏)(观)(政)(策)(要)(稳)(、微)(观)(政)(策)(要)(活)(、社)(会)(政)(策)(要)(托)(底)(的)(总)(体)(思)(路)(,在)(稳)(增)(长)(和)(调)(结)(构)(之)(间)(寻)(求)(平)(衡)(,在)(新)(常)(态)(不)(断)(以)(市)(场)(化)(为)(导)(向)(的)(改)(革)(以)(及)(推)(动)(技)(术)(进)(步)(,2015年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(充)(满)(希)(望)(。  (作)(者)(系)(瑞)(穗)(证)(券)(亚)(洲)(公)(司)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)()  作)(者)(:沈)(建)(光)(
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